3/28/24

SAVAGE VIEWS – Ready or Not

 

READY OR NOT

Remember me? I’m the one who predicted the Mets would not only qualify for the playoffs this season but actually get past round one.  Also, last year, around this time, I said the 2023 Mets were not a playoff team.  

When I make my forecasts, I try to take a clear eyed approach by eliminating emotion whenever possible.  However, I am a passionate fan of the Mets, Giants and Rangers and it’s hard to eliminate all biases.

To be honest, I am a bit concerned as we enter the new season.  

My forecasts are based on the core group of Mets improving on rather disappointing results in 2023.  Each of Lindor, Alonso, McNeil, Marte did not live up to expectations.  Baty, Alvarez and Vientos were all underwhelming although it’s evident that Alvarez is a budding star.  

I sensed there was a toxic clubhouse that had a negative impact on Baty, etc.  The position players underperformed in spring training as nearly all of our core players were under the Mendoza line.  Wonder if they can turn it on once the opening day bell rings.

A number of pundits are down on this team even suggesting the season will be over once we hit July and that we will be massive sellers.  Obviously, I disagree.  Although I was not in favor of signing JD Martinez and wanted Vientos to be given the opportunity to shine, I understand the reasons for the move.  The Mets lineup has the potential to be formidable.

Clearly the Braves are the class of the division with the Phillies ranked second.  In fact, some suggest that Philly will challenge the Braves for the title.  In my opinion, the Mets match up well with Philly as shown below:

Position

Mets

Philly

Edge

1B

Alonso

Harper

Even

2B

McNeil

Stott

Even

SS

Lindor

Turner

Even

3B

Baty

Bohm

Philly

C

Alvarez

Realmuto

Even

LF

Nimmo

Castellanos

Mets

CF

Bader

Rojas

Even

RF

Marte

Marsh

Mets

DH

Martinez

Schwarber

Mets

SP1

Senza

Nola

Philly

SP2

Severino

Wheeler

Philly

SP3

Quintana

Suarez

Philly

SP4

Manaea

Sanchez

Even

SP5

Houser

Turnbill

Mets

SP6

MeGill

Walker

Mets

Closer

Diaz

Alvarado

Mets

RP

Even

Bench

Philly

A lot depends on our guys remaining relatively healthy since there are few position player options available at this time in our minor league system.  On the other hand, we have quite a bit of pitching depth that few teams can match.  

It’s a good bet that we will see the likes of Peterson, Butto, Lucchesi, Scott and Lavender at some point this year with Hamil and Vasil in the wings.  Obviously, the top three starters for Philly are better than what the Mets have to offer.  

Don’t be surprised if the Mets win the season series from Philly.

Ray

March 28 2024

Mets Daily Tidbits

 


Mets  

 

 Mets Player Development @MetsPlayerDev Mar 27, 2024: 

Did you know that Christian Scott first learned his slider from Pitching Ninja?  He discusses that and much more on the latest episode of Future of Flushing!

 https://t.co/Xmg9yB364q 

https://t.co/WKgl6HdmPZ  

https://t.co/BS9pdPm1eM 

 

 Abbey Mastracco @AbbeyMastracco  Mar 27, 2024: 

The Mets let DJ Stewart know he made the team. They still have to decide between relievers Yohan Ramirez and Sean Reid-Foley 

 

Laura Albanese @AlbaneseLaura  Mar 27, 2024: 

The Mets nutritionist has made Edwin Diaz eat salads. 

Brian Recca @brian_recca Mar 27, 2024: 

        -Edwin Diaz '22: Timmy Trumpets

        -Edwin Diaz '24: Timmy Thousand Island Dressing 

 

Will Sammon @WillSammon  Mar 27, 2024: 

                    Kodai Senga is playing light catch at Citi Field. 

 

QNS @QNS  Mar 27, 2024: 

Mets legend Dwight Gooden to hold meet-and-greet at Murphy's Bar in Astoria Apr. 19 

 

SNY @SNYtv  Mar 27, 2024: 

"Opening Day always feels special, it gives me the butterflies. I'm excited." 

- Francisco Lindor 

 

New York Daily News @NYDailyNews  Mar 27, 2024: 

Carlos Mendoza is the Mets’ 6th manager since 2017 — counting Carlos Beltran 

Trust can be hard to come by with so much turnover, but heading into his first season at the helm, Mendoza has made himself as visible and as vocal as possible to establish it 

https://t.co/WRCEGRhmfL  

https://x.com/NYDailyNews/status/1772975370943299649?t=NvJxhDii5H_ebuRsq4RU6w&s=0 )

  

Abbey Mastracco  @AbbeyMastracco  Mar 27, 2024: 

I got in a reference about Love is Blind in this one and had to rewrite it after J.D. Martinez was signed, so definitely read it! 

https://x.com/AbbeyMastracco/status/1772984024669065534?t=yet-jtdP7ldIVBD9tSZ6PA&s=03   

 

MLB

 

Chris Hatfield @SPChrisHatfield Mar 27, 2024: 

Just learned that Noah Song, who went on the 60-day IL this morning, needs Tommy John surgery. More adversity for right-hander, who after his 2019 debut had a multi-year absence due to his military commitment, followed by a roller-coaster 2023 with the Phillies as a Rule 5 pick.

 

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN Mar 27, 2024:

Max Scherzer progressing well. Chris Young says he’s guessing Scherzer won’t be placed on the 60-day IL. Which suggests a possible return in May. 

 

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan Mar 27, 2024: 

Nobody writes about Shohei Ohtani with the combination of precision, grace and insight like Tim Keown. Even before the gambling scandal, Ohtani was a man on an island, and this piece captures the separateness — which is now even more acute — wonderfully. 

 https://t.co/s31KT7lnbe 

 

The Reds will be without second baseman Matt McLain for an extended period after he had left shoulder surgery on Tuesday. 

It was not immediately known when McLain would be ready to return. 

 

Ronald Acuña Jr. @ronaldacunajr24 Mar 27, 2024: 

I want you to understand the full picture. I want you to know about the whole person, and what’s important to me. About the things reporters never ask me about. Not just the baseball part. 

This is my story. 

https://t.co/DqKd216jtl 

 

Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome Mar 27, 2024: 

Alex Bregman has evolved from the brash 22-year-old kid who stared into dugout cameras and brought his bat to first base after a World Series homer. He's an entrepreneur, businessman, the closest thing his clubhouse has to a spokesman and, now, "at peace" - 

https://t.co/88DnWvp5Qf 

 

College

 

D1Baseball @d1baseball) Mar 27, 2024: 

            D1Baseball Top 50 Second Basemen: Week 6 

1. Travis Bazzana, @BeaverBaseball

2. Blake Barthol, @CoastalBaseball

3. Christian Moore, @Vol_Baseball

4. Brady Day, @KStateBSB

5. Christian Martin, @HokiesBaseball 

FULL LIST

https://t.co/LqzVXXEtdT   https://t.co/H5VYvZpuH4 

 

D1Baseball  @d1baseball Mar 26, 2024: 

                D1Baseball Top 50 Shortstops: Week 6 

1. Colby Shelton, @GatorsBB

2. Kaelen Culpepper, @KStateBSB

3. Griff O'Ferrall, @UVABaseball

4. JJ Wetherholt, @WVUBaseball

5. Josh Kuroda-Grauer, @RutgersBaseball 

FULL LIST 

https://t.co/4h2SI0Aswl   https://t.co/F7njhRRYFm 

 

Paul Articulates – Eat some innings, Jose!

This is a very brief post on opening day for the Mets.  

It focuses on one topic – starting pitchers staying in the game.  Last year one of the biggest factors in the Mets’ disappointing season was that the starting pitchers failed to go deep into ballgames early in the season.  The burden on the bullpen burned them out and made the mid-season a disaster.  

Buck wore himself out with trips to the mound, and the result of using 4-5 relievers was that one would always have a sub-par performance and give up the runs that lost the game.

This year with Kodai Senga on the injured list we have already lost one of our innings eaters as well as a fine pitcher that had very good success last year.  


Next up is Jose Quintana, who was a bright spot last year when he returned by being someone that could regularly pitch in the sixth and maybe seventh inning.  Quintana needs to be a work horse this year, going deep in most of his starts.   With rosters now finalized, the bullpen does not include any names that I would put in the category of “long reliever”.  

That means that for every 4-5 inning start, Carlos Mendoza will need to use several relievers and that will soon lead to some fatigue.  A fatigued bullpen is not your friend.

Here are the inning counts  for the starting pitchers on the Mets roster including the injured Senga:

Kodai Senga:  2023 innings: 166 ; Best year: 180

Jose Quintana: 2023 innings: 75; Best year: 208

Luis Severino: 2023 innings: 89 ; Best year:193

Sean Manaea: 2023 innings: 117; Best year: 179

Adrian Houser: 2023 innings: 111; Best year: 142

Tylor Megill: 2023 innings: 126 ; Best year: 126

Given the still-underperforming bats the Mets displayed in spring training, this team will go as the pitching goes.  The pitching success will be driven in large part by the longevity of the starters.  

C’mon, Jose, eat some innings!!


Tom Brennan: Opening Day, and The School of Hard Knocks


OPENING DAY, AND LEARNING FROM BAD OUTINGS

OPENING DAY TODAY?

(NOPE - THE WEATHER IS “NOT PERMITTING”)

We all know that the Mets always win on opening day, when it doesn’t rain…it’s just the other 161 games we worry about.  

So, Friday is the new opening day.

Jose Quintana will start today, and he is 9-16 previously, with “previously” being the last 4 seasons (2020-23). Remarkable stat. 

That averages out to 2.25 wins a season for the O.D. starter.

In his final two spring outings, 7.1 IP, 11 runs. Yep, he’s ready. 100%.

Anyway, let’s get this season underway. 

ME? I won’t settle for less than 162-0.

SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS:

If you are an aspiring minor leaguer, you probably hope, particularly if you’re a pitcher, that you make a televised, spring training, game debut, go 2 innings and strike out all six batters on 18 pitches. 

Then send the ball to Cooperstown.

Well, it sadly doesn’t work that way in real life. 

Sometimes, it’s the “school of hard knocks”. 

Dominic Hamel, the other day, gave up 4 HRs in his brief 3.1 inning stint. 

Then, Trey McLoughlin gave up 3 HRs in an inning a few days later against the Astros. Both pitchers to this point haven’t pitched higher than AA. They both faced significantly tougher hitters and found out the hard way that what works in AA may not work with major league caliber hitters.

Hamel has very good breaking stuff, and he was occasionally hitting 97 on the gun. But to me, his offerings look straight. 97 MPH straight to major league caliber hitters can be dangerous if the location and mix of pitches is not optimal. Dom, if he was taking school notes, realizes he has to make some adjustments. I am pleased to note that in the minors, though, he has allowed just 17 homers in 246 career innings. They do say that trying too hard can straighten fastballs.

I did not watch all of McLoughlin‘s pitches, but he seemed to be throwing 91, which is low velocity against voracious major league hitters. The pitches on which he surrendered the 3 home runs were not (to my eye) well located and did not show much movement. Hopefully, he was also taking school notes, and realizes he has to make some adjustments. 

My thought (FWIW) was that he needs to have movement and change of location on his fastball like 40+ Bartolo Colon did so successfully. In the minors to date, McLoughlin has allowed 21 HRs in 123 innings, frankly too high a tater rate.

It might be a bit comforting for that pitching duo, though, to realize that Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito allowed a remarkable 82 HRs in 375 innings in 2023, so homers in the big leagues are inescapable.

The reality is, for these Mets minors pitchers, major league hitters are vastly better than AA hitters and the strategy for both in 2024 should be to pitch to minor-league hitters as if they were major league hitters, and seek to throw the stuff that would get major hitters out. Of course, that’s easier said than done. 

SCOTT DID WHAT??

On the other hand, it appears that dazzling Christian Scott has been taking plenty of notes and acting upon them. I saw the highlights of his seven strikeout, four inning game, the other day, and those strike outs showed great variety, location, and movement. It really almost felt like watching Greg Maddux pitch. 

To my four eyes, Scott is ready right now - he just needs to keep working on becoming tougher and tougher. The pitches I saw look like number one starting pitcher caliber stuff.  How did they look to you, folks?

And so it goes. 

It simply comes down to this: minor-league pitchers need to get to the point where they can effectively shut down major league hitters. Sometimes, lots of schoolwork be required. Pardon the grammer.

Vientos, too. I think of the movie Warrior, where teacher turned fighter Brendan Connolly is about to lose his home due to huge medical bills for his child. He gets back into the ring to raise some dough, and miraculously gets added into a $5 million winner take-all fight tournament. 

His coach confronts him in between rounds in one round against an unbeaten killer fighter, and tells him bluntly, that he either wins that fight, or he loses his home. Well, he didn’t lose his home. He won that fight and won the purse. 

Mark needs to be that relentless. They sent him down, they’re trying to “steal his home”, and he’s got to dig in, get the heck up off the mat, and not let them. Go through AAA pitching like a knife through butter.


3/27/24

Mets Daily Tidbits

 


Mets  

 

Brooklyn and St. Lucie will be released next Wednesday or Thursday. 

 

Mets Release Luke Voit 

 

Tim Britton @TimBritton Mar 26, 2024: 

Mets announce they've released reliever Phil Bickford, whom they DFA'd to make room for J.D. Martinez earlier in the week. Bickford, who won his arbitration case against the Mets for $900K, will only be owed termination pay of $217K, similar to what happened with J.D. Davis 

 

Kevin Kernan @AMBS_Kernan Mar 27, 2024: 

Baseball needs a Pitching Czar to begin to fix what has gone terribly wrong on the mound from injuries to the inability to get deep into games. I nominate David Cone who has proven himself on the mound and in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth.   

https://t.co/swTE4s777y  

https://x.com/AMBS_Kernan/status/1772960539322294568?t=cmPP-50H1rMXo8Oqbk8tTw&s=03   

 

Will Sammon @WillSammon Mar 26, 2024: 

Third base might be the Mets' most interesting position in 2024. The Mets are giving Brett Baty a second chance at the job while carrying coverage. How much has he improved? 

https://t.co/m0Qum4TFFM  

https://x.com/WillSammon/status/1772691655549763868?t=N5gjm8FzZwe6TUeb5jQs5g&s=03  

  

FOX Sports: MLB @MLBONFOX Mar 26, 2024: 

Which players are you most excited to watch this year? 

FOX Sports' Deesha Thosar & Rowan Kavner picked one from each team in 2024. 

https://t.co/0hHIaCyG3B  

https://x.com/MLBONFOX/status/1772666086363718124?t=8Ii9_ujaB71_Oux7-T7Vtw&s=03 

  

Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets Mar 26, 2024: 

Starling Marte entered and left camp healthy but had a quiet spring. He says he is ready for the season - including occasional turns at DH when J.D. Martinez isn't playing: 

https://t.co/sxdXx8CoKp  

https://x.com/NYPost_Mets/status/1772653229597188112?t=_qAgJ_XPFUhNP_VVl6WhQQ&s=03   

 

Matt Eddy @MattEddyBA Mar 26, 2024: 

The Baseball America MLB Preview would be incomplete without a power ranking. 

This year we ranked teams on the 20-80 scouting scale 

80 Dodgers

80 Braves

. . .

20 Athletics

20 Rockies 

Also: next first-time all-stars and key rookies for all 30 clubs 

https://t.co/jyE62T7kt7  

https://x.com/MattEddyBA/status/1772619139460313099?t=lcMEs_QVnz25nM3493OIpw&s=03   

 

College

 

MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline Mar 26, 2024: 

A dozen jacks for Jac Caglianone! 

MLB's No. 5 Draft prospect homers in his third straight contest. 

More on the two-way sensation 

 

Brian Recca @brian_recca Mar 26, 2024: 

RJ Johnson | '24 | CF

Rutgers Baseball 

.296/.436/.408 ; 1 HR/10 SB

126 PA. 14 BB/20 K 

From 3/22 v UConn: No stride swing w/ quick hands. Sneaky pop on fastballs at/below the belt. Really good runner who ranges well in CF w/ enough arm for the position

  

Baseball America @BaseballAmerica Mar 26, 2024: 

Travis Bazzana’s been riding a hitting hot streak essentially since he started playing college baseball. 

Last week he homered SIX times and leads our College Hot Sheet 

https://t.co/wytuxhLIac  

https://x.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1772626107910545607?t=Mfk7Dize-r4Id5ZTzDi5SA&s=03 

 

Mike Wilson @ByMikeWilson Mar 26, 2024: 

Billy Amick is sidelined with an appendix issue. 

The Tennessee third baseman will continue to be evaluated. He will not play Tuesday against Tennessee Tech. Vols host Georgia in a weekend series starting Friday. 

https://t.co/LrW0JngvR2  

https://x.com/ByMikeWilson/status/1772643850550481295?t=u-XmTiV9hzJK_7UcZ5SfsQ&s=03